UK Facing ‘Baby Shortage’ as Fertility Rate Falls to Half of Post-War Levels

The UK is facing a “baby shortage”, with fertility rates dropping to nearly half those seen in the Post-War Boom, raising concerns over potential “long-term” economic stagnation.

A report from Social Market Foundation (SMF) found that in 2020, the total fertility rate (TFR) – the number of children per woman – stood at 1.58 in England and Wales, nearly half of the peak following the Second World War of 2.93. Scotland saw the sharpest decline, with a fertility rate of 1.29.

The report cited statistics from the OECD, which estimated that “typical British working parents” spend 22% of their income on full-time childcare, more than double the average rate for Western economies.

“That might mean that there is more scope for the government to influence birth rates through childcare policy in the UK than in other parts of the world starting from a better position on childcare costs,” the paper says.